Scientists Warn 1.5°C Warming Could Arrive by 2029

What has the president said about that approach?

On Thursday, Trump said the United States does not need an agreement with Iran. He pointed to billions of dollars belonging to Iran that are frozen in overseas accounts. After meeting Qatar’s prime minister at the White House this week, he also said Gulf Arab allies prefer the current situation, with economic pressure continuing.

Are negotiations still taking place?

They are, but they are stuck. Qatar is acting as a mediator and is trying to bridge the divide between the two sides. No agreement has been reached.

And what has Trump said about the possibility of another attack?

He said the United States remains ready for action, but wrote that an attack now seems quite unlikely. That is different from the days before recent elections, when he threatened quick and intense strikes against Iran.

Why does he have less room to act now?

His wartime ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is close to losing power after elections in Israel. In the United States, Trump’s party lost its majority in Congress in the midterm elections. Vice President Vance said the unpopular war and the nature of the relationship between the United States and Israel contributed to Republican losses.

So the conflict is continuing without a clear path to an end. What does that mean in the Gulf?

Iran still controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has introduced rules requiring ships to get its permission before travelling through the waterway, which had been open to shipping before the war. Official Iranian social media accounts often post videos of attacks on ships that Iran says broke those rules.

Can oil still move through the strait?

The United States is helping oil tankers travel through the strait on a route close to Oman’s coast. That has helped Arab states export oil. However, it has not brought production of other important goods back to pre-war levels, including liquefied natural gas, fertiliser and aluminium.

What should countries in the region prepare for?

Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomat from the United Arab Emirates, said the region must prepare for a long period of uncertainty. He warned that neither a decisive end to the conflict nor a stable regional order can be taken for granted.

Thank you, Jack.

Our second story is about warnings that global warming could reach a key limit much sooner than expected.

Sophie is LinguaWire’s environment correspondent, and she has been covering the COP31 climate conference.

Hello, Daniel. Two reports published during the United Nations climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, say the world remains far from controlling global warming.

What is the most urgent warning?

The European Union’s Copernicus climate change service says global warming could pass 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average as soon as 2029. That is the long-term temperature threshold in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Why is that date now so close?

When the Paris agreement was adopted in 2015, the average global temperature was expected to pass the 1.5-degree threshold around 2045. Copernicus says warming has accelerated significantly since then, so it now expects the threshold to be crossed much earlier.

What do the scientists believe is driving that change?

They say there are still questions about every part of the recent rapid rise in global temperatures. But they are clear that growing concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activity remain the main driver of the overall trend.

What does the other report say about the longer term?

Climate Action Tracker, a nonprofit group that analyses climate policies, says the planet is still on track to warm by nearly 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. It says that level of warming would devastate coral reefs, disrupt agriculture and forests, and melt most of the world’s ice.

That is a serious difference from the Paris target. Have governments improved the outlook?

Sarah Heck, a climate policy analyst at Climate Analytics, an international climate science and policy institute, said governments have failed to make meaningful improvements to the expected warming by the end of the century. The reports say climate action has stalled for five years as fossil fuel development has continued to grow.

What is being said about the damage already linked to warming?

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg is attending the UN climate talks for the first time since 2021. She said the current level of warming has already caused deadly floods, wildfires and catastrophic glacier collapses. She called the climate crisis a matter of life and death.

So the reports are a stark warning for the delegates at COP31.

Yes. They show how little time remains to change the direction of warming, while the effects of climate change are already being felt around the world.

Thank you, Sophie.

Part one: vocabulary.

Threshold.

A threshold is a limit or point that must be reached or passed. In the story, “the 1.5-degree threshold.”

The school has a threshold for the number of students in each class.

Concentration.

A concentration is an amount of a substance gathered in one place. In the story, “growing concentrations of greenhouse gases.”

High concentrations of smoke can be dangerous.

Devastate.

To devastate means to cause very serious damage. In the story, “would devastate coral reefs.”

The storm could devastate farms near the coast.

Part two: the grammar.

Today's grammar is an “as” clause: “The reports say climate action has stalled for five years as fossil fuel development has continued to grow.”

We use “as” to connect two situations that happen during the same period. Here, climate action has stalled while fossil fuel development has continued to grow.

In the story, “The reports say climate action has stalled for five years as fossil fuel development has continued to grow.”

Energy demand is growing as cities become larger.

Repeat after me: The reports say climate action has stalled for five years as fossil fuel development has continued to grow.